Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
