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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd